ferryman

hi! welcome to post number one. we’re new here. don’t expect anything and we’ll get along just fine. barring that, expect everything.

the epistemic status of this post is “i am just fuckin spitting words to make my brain work, why are you even reading this rn”

i’ve been thinking about decision theory lately. something Ra posts about quite often.

now. growing up in the middle of what has become bumfuck nowhere and having never once stepped foot in the california bay area, i am probably the least qualified person alive to mull over something like the rationalist community’s baby.

fuck that shit tho we’re doing it anyway lol

snickering

yeehaw or whatever

okay. so- some of our first, initial thoughts after the gigantic blast that is Ra’s blog have been:

• “Okay, but what is the actual point of an algorithm like this? Especially with a niche interest like decision theory, it is extremely unlikely that anyone whatsoever has an exact copy of the decision-making process we’re using. Most people don’t predict so well, and probably even fewer do the extreme mental overhaul required to operate with a theory like this informing them instinctively.”
• “is that even the most important facet of the concept?”
• “If the facts of the theory are probably inaccurate outside of logicspace, does that actually change the quality of the decisions you might make/have-made based on it?”

so here’s the thing. thinking about what ‘decision theory’ is for for like two seconds puts up some significant limiters on when it is useful for and what, right?

Well- maybe?

It’s for making choices, right? to throw down or not to throw down. course the options here are infinite. everyone, every day is making choices, and choices about choices, and every day most of us keep on making the wrong ones. or the ones that lead us to superhell, or whatever ra’s calling it.

so let’s do a field experiment. There is a particular issue relevant to our continued existence.

let’s- set the stage.

you are a twenty-something year-old.

you have spent the last twenty-something years in alternating cycles of rebellion, misery, and optimism.

you ...*about* know what the word anarchy means. as much as that's possible.

you have spent the last four years attempting to break out of the matrix, by various means.
moving out has been liberating, hasn't it?

...no?

it was for a while. but you don't exactly know how to pick your people, yet. how could you?
even as you understand more, you feel new bindings add themselves. 
for the first time ever in your life, you wish, just a little, that you were less resiliant.
But that's giving in. You can't, and you won't ever. 

So you wait for it to be over, for the cycle to roll back around.
you plan your escape slowly. you're dirt poor, and can't really afford to live on your own.
but you plan impossible getaways anyway, sink your effort and focus into stratigies you know won't work.
Job applications and daydreaming, mostly.
and from the fire, the frying pan is starting to look really good.

it's a twist that finally closes the deal, though.
almost a contrivance. a car crash, and a dead sibling.

you go back for the funeral. 
They appear to suck less than once they did.
(you know they don't, but what are you going to do? crush Your hopes?)
(you still don't trust yourself anyway. maybe it *was* all just an overreaction.)

You've moved back to your old haunt within the next few months.
your ex-partner commits egocide (in the plural way, not the psychedelic way).
you feel just a twinge of satisfaction, and you cry anyway.

you very much expect this to be another slog- wear out their excited hugs and apologies and wait for them to resume the Old Ways once again. you're... more or less right. it fucking sucks, being genre-aware.
parent one sold more of their soul than you had expected, in the time since you were on speaking terms.
parent two is the same. they can love what they torture and not sense a contradicton.

but here's the thing.
you're putting yourself back together again anyway.
You're doing it in spite of them, with rage fueled by them.
and maybe you have an actual way out this time. help from a friend.

will you go no-contact again? for good?

Interesting question. We want to. Very badly. Our lives are better, emotionally-speaking, without them in them. pesky problem is that we’re still dirt-poor. not a bad thing morally, but a pretty bad thing if you want to eat. and they have the food.

i reckon there’s a 15% chance we bite the bucket and lose everything if we cut them off for good. prolly more. dunno how to run that kind of calculation, and i’m not about to go looking up stats.

this kinda seems like an impossible situation to be in, following FDT logic. if we had been using a full stack earlier, they would either have never let us in here or already changed so substantially that it would be impossible to miss. the timeless working that let us into this situation is, in fact, an eternal submission. whoopie.

now i dunno about you, but i think that FUCKING SUCKS. i will not be playing that game, screw history, screw naraka.

so i have two ideas taken from this experience.

• YOU HAVE TO PAY THE FERRYMAN
  • if you’re using anything else- in logical time or in apparent time- before you’re using fdt, you have to buy-in to using it. usually that means sacrificing utility in the short term. in my situation, it’s utility i never would have gotten in the first place.
• WHAT YOU BRING BACK FROM THE DEEP
  • we’re not playing a zero-sum game anymore. our trip here has been worth it, even though we all desperately wish we had not taken it. i’ll be thinking about what we’ve learned of our parents in the time we’ve spent here with our eyes open.

subject to change at my whim. my whim is probably gonna be to refine these at a late date, but you gotta start somewhere.